This article was written collaboratively by the Automotive & Assembly practice. The authors include Alex Brotschi, Daniel Christof, Joe Dertouzos, Sebastian Kempf, and Prashant Vaze.
Every day, healthcare experts and data analysts update models predicting the spread of coronavirus to show the extent of the human tragedy—the number of lives lost, patients hospitalized, and unemployed workers. Despite the intense scrutiny, much uncertainty persists.
Within the automotive sector, COVID-19 is a massive, once-in-a-lifetime disruption, and the situation is changing rapidly. To gain more clarity about the pandemic’s potential impact on the light-vehicle aftermarket—encompassing parts, accessories, and tire sales—we reviewed both past and current trends. First, we looked at previous crises to quantify how demand, revenue, and other aftermarket performance indicators typically change during a downturn. We then considered the current global health crisis and created scenarios showing how the aftermarket might evolve this year, as the pandemic abates, and over
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